2024 Conference USA Conference Preview

By Matt Fargo 

https://topsportscappers.com/

Regular Season Win Totals and C-USA Championship Odds (via DraftKings)

Liberty: 10.5 Over -125 Under +105/-200 C-USA Winner

Jacksonville State: 7.5 Over -135 Under +115/+550 C-USA Winner

Western Kentucky: 7.5 Over -120 Under +100/+450 C-USA Winner

FIU: 4.5 Over +125 Under -150/+10,000 C-USA Winner

Louisiana Tech: 5 Over +105 Under -125/+2,500 C-USA Winner

Middle Tennessee: 5 Over -115 Under -105/+3,000 C-USA Winner

New Mexico State: 4.5 Over +125 Under -150/+7,500 C-USA Winner

Sam Houston: 4.5 Over -125 Under +105/+1,800 C-USA Winner

UTEP: 4 Over -125 Under +105/+6,000 C-USA Winner

Kennesaw State: 2.5 Over +100 Under -120/+30,000 C-USA Winner

Coaching Changes

Middle Tennessee: Rick Stockstill Out ~ Derek Mason In

New Mexico State: Jerry Kill Out ~ Tony Sanchez In

UTEP: Dana Dimel Out ~ Scotty Walden In

Liberty Flames 13-1 ~ 8-0 C-USA ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 8

Liberty entered the FBS in 2018 and it has yet to endure a losing season, putting together a 53-23 record following a 13-1 mark last season. The Flames blew through the regular season undefeated and then defeated New Mexico St. in the C-USA Championship Game before losing to Oregon 45-6 in the Fiesta Bowl. Only two of the victories were by single digits so they dominated throughout and are the clear cut favorites to repeat this season and try and get a shot in the CFP although based on the bowl game last year, they may not be able to compete with the big boys. Second year head coach Jamey Chadwell is a hot commodity after leading Coastal Carolina to a 31-7 record prior to taking over at Liberty so another big season and he will be gone. Returning is quarterback Kaidon Salter who broke the school record with 44 touchdowns but he does lose four of his top five receivers. However, The Flames were the No. 1 rushing team and will rely on that again. Defensively, they were just average but that is all they needed and they should be better with eight starters back. Liberty played a very easy schedule last season and it is easy again in 2024, listed as the weakest slate in the country. The only nonconference test is at Appalachian St. and the two toughest C-USA games are at home.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks 9-4 ~ 6-2 C-USA ~ 8-3-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 4

The Gamecocks entered their first season at the FBS level in 2023 and it was a surprisingly resounding success as they finished 9-4 which included a win over Louisiana 33-30 in overtime in the New Orleans Bowl, becoming the first team ever to win a bowl game in its first season moving up to D-1. It could be a challenge getting to nine wins again with the way the schedule is set up but an overall very weak conference will lend a hand in the success. Head coach Rich Rodriguez has had success throughout his career with only four losing campaigns in his 17 FBS seasons so the success last year should not be all that much of a surprise. Jacksonville St. had 15 starters back last season but it only has nine coming back this season and loses a lot in key areas. The offense was adequate last season but the Gamecocks have to replace their quarterback, three top running backs and two top receivers. There will be a quarterback battle between Logan Smothers, who saw decent action last season, and Connecticut transfer Zion Turner. The defense led the way with a strong pass rush and third down defense but the majority has to be replaced. They have two tough nonconference games against Coastal Carolina and at Louisville and they have to travel to both Liberty and Western Kentucky.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 8-5 ~ 5-3 C-USA ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 5

It was a third straight winning season for the Hilltoppers despite bringing back only 10 starters and the 8-5 record could have been better as two of the losses were by three points on the road. Western Kentucky has had winning seasons in 10 out of the last 13 following a 4-32 stretch from 2008-2010 which were three of its first four years at the FBS level. The Hilltoppers return their most starters since 2020 and the offense should be better with nine starters back following an inconsistent season where they were No. 53 overall and No. 48 in scoring. Western Kentucky does lose quarterback Austin Reed and top receiver Malachi Corley but three receivers with starting experience that combined for 1,244 yards are back and it got T.J. Finley from the transfer portal who threw for 3,439 yards with 24 touchdowns and eight interceptions at Texas St. after stops at LSU and Auburn. The running game will have to improve to take some pressure off after finishing No. 119 last season. The Hilltoppers return only five players on defense from a unit that was No. 110 overall and No. 94 in points allowed. They get Eastern Kentucky but the other three nonconference games are Alabama, Toledo and Boston College. They do not face Liberty or Jacksonville St. until the final two weeks which could be a big edge if healthy.

FIU Panthers 4-8 ~ 1-7 C-USA ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 6

It was another disappointing season for the Panthers which suffered their fifth straight losing season as they were two wins away from bowl eligibility with four games left but lost all four of those, getting outscored 166-70 to finish 4-8. Florida International head coach Mike Macintyre is in his third season and while he is a well-known name mainly because of his time in Colorado from 2013-2018 but he has not had a ton of success with a career record of 54-81 in 11 seasons. While it is not a complete rebuild, the Panthers have 14 starters coming back and they are No. 3 in experience in C-USA, but the talent is not where it should be coming from where they come from. They were bad on both sides in 2023 with the passing offense ranking of No. 59 being the only unit to finish inside the top 100. Quarterback Keyone Jenkins is very talented but he needs to be more efficient and accurate as he had an 11:11 TD:INT ration while completing just over 58 percent of his passes. The running game needs to improve behind a weak offensive line. The defense allowed 34 or more points seven times including 40 of more four times. The schedule is tame with tough trips to Indiana and Florida Atlantic and while most of C-USA is just as bad as the Panthers, the have to go to both Liberty and Jacksonville St.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 3-9 ~ 2-6 C-USA ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5

A winning record and a bowl invite were pretty much guarantees for Louisiana Tech not so long ago as from 2011-2020, the Bulldogs had only one losing season that included eight bowl games (they turned down an invitation in 2012) but they have gone 3-9 in each of the last three seasons. Head coach Sonny Cumbie is in his third season after taking over for Skip Holtz and his job could be on the line should he put together another similar season in Ruston. He had success as offensive coordinator at TCU and Texas Tech and brought in the Air Raid offense which has had success, just not consistently. The Bulldogs were still average at No. 67 in total offense and No. 76 in scoring offense and now have to replace their quarterback, three top receivers and leading running back as well as both offensive tackles. There is not much experience at quarterback and there will likely be a short leash. While there was a lack on consistency on offense, the defense was bad most of the time as Louisiana Tech was No. 109 overall and No. 117 in scoring and they really stumbled down the stretch. This unit also has to replace six starters which may not be a bad thing. The Bulldogs have two tough nonconference games at NC State and Arkansas but in C-USA, they catch a break and miss Liberty entirely which is like a win.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 4-8 ~ 3-5 C-USA ~ 8-3-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 3

Former Middle Tennessee head coach Rick Stockstill took this program to a bowl game ten times in his 18 seasons but it was not good enough as he was fired after a 4-8 finish last season. He had a losing record only seven times but he won more than eight games only once when the Blue Raiders went 10-3 in 2009 so now it will be up to former Vanderbilt head coach Derek Mason to try and advance the program. He was just 27-55 in seven seasons with the Commodores but coaching in the SEC on a perennial poor team and coaching in C-USA are two different things. The bad news is that it looks to be a rebuilding season as they have only seven starters back overall. Offensively, at least they get their quarterback, leading receiver and leading rusher back but they have to replace four starters along the offensive line although there is some experience. Middle Tennessee was No. 62 in total offense last season so that could be hard to replicate if the line does not progress. The Blue Raiders were not as good on defense and this is another situation where a lack of returnees from a bad unit may not be a horrible thing. They have a tough nonconference slate with games against Mississippi, Memphis and Duke and within the conference, they get Liberty and Western Kentucky at home.

New Mexico State Aggies 9-4 ~ 6-2 C-USA ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 5-6-1 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 3

New Mexico St. was the surprise of the conference last season as it opened with a bad loss at home against Massachusetts but then went on a 10-2 run which included a win at Auburn and made it to the C-USA Championship Game but lost to Liberty 49-35 before losing to Fresno St. 37-10 in the New Mexico Bowl. That was only the third bowl game for the Aggies since 1960 but it was the second in two years and now, they have to do it without head coach Jerry Kill who proved what a good coach he is by winning 17 games in his two years after the program won a combined 26 games in the previous 10 seasons. Tony Sanchez takes over after going 20-40 at UNLV from 2015-2019 in his only other head coaching experience and he is walking into a tough situation with New Mexico St. bringing back only eight starters. The biggest loss is at quarterback with Diego Pavia coming off a great season and there is little to no experience at the position. The Aggies also lost their top six receivers that accumulated 2,275 yards. Defensively is where they really overachieved as they had only four starters back and that drops to three for this season after finishing No. 46 in scoring defense. They have games at Texas A&M and a rematch at Fresno St. and the C-USA schedule is fairly frontloaded which is not ideal.

Sam Houston Bearkats 3-9 ~ 2-6 C-USA ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 4

San Houston St. was the other of the two teams entering C-USA and the Bearkats did not have the same success that Jacksonville St. had. They started very slow as the offense could not get going, managing more than 16 points only once in their first six games while starting 0-8. Sam Houston did win three of its last four games to produce some momentum heading into this season which is expected to be better. Head coach K.C. Keeler has a proven track record here and he will have this team ready but the Bearkats might still be a year away although anything can happen in this conference. Sam Houston ended up No. 119 in total offense and No. 118 in scoring offense and had a much better second half where is averaged 28.9 ppg over the final six games. A new quarterback will be taking over and it will be either Hunter Watson, a JUCO transfer who won a National Championship, or Jase Bauer, a transfer from Central Michigan. Overall, eight other starters are back including four along the offensive line. The defense kept some of the losses close but now they have to replace seven starters, each line needing multiple replacements. The nonconference schedule is sneaky hard with Rice, UCF and Texas St. and the only team they miss in the conference is Middle Tennessee.

UTEP Miners 3-9 ~ 2-6 C-USA ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 5

It has been an up and down stretch for UTEP which had a 2-34 stretch in 2017-2019 and was slowly starting to improve but bottomed back out at 3-9 last year and head coach Dana Dimel was let go after six seasons. UTEP hired Scotty Walden from Austin Peay where he went 26-14 in four seasons and he brought over a lot of his coaching staff and also lured a bunch of his players to join him which could give this team some cohesion early in the season considering the Miners only have nine of their own starters coming back. UTEP could not score last season as it averaged just under 20 ppg which was No. 119 in the country as they scored 14 or fewer points in six of their 12 games. Walden knows offense, his Austin Peay team was No. 14 in total offense in the FCS last season and this will be an improved unit despite the top four receivers moving on as the portal is helping out. The entire offensive line has to be replaced but two starters from Austin Peay will begin the process. Defensively, the Miners were very solid and they do have to replace some key players but the secondary will be the strength once again. Nebraska, Colorado St. and Tennessee make up 3/4 of the nonconference slate and while they only take on two of the top three teams in C-USA, both of those are on the road.

Kennesaw State Owls 3-6 ~ 0-0 Ind ~ 2-4-0 ATS ~ 0-0-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 9

Kennesaw St. is the newcomer to the conference in 2024 after having some success at the FCS level, albeit not in the last couple years. Last season was a throwaway one for the Owls as they played only nine games and redshirted numerous players after four games to give them that extra year which will eventually put them in a good place, just likely not this season. This program has only been around for nine years so the fact that seven of those resulted in winning seasons shows the coaching staff can take credit for that led by Brian Bohannon who has been here from the very start. Because of the redshirts, there is a lot of experience as the Owls are the fourth most experienced team in the conference but taking a step up is no easy task. Offensively, they run a pistol offense which can benefit them with the competition not having much experience going against that but there is not much experience at quarterback which can hurt early on. There is plenty of depth at running back and receiver to help make up for that. The defense can help carry them for a while with nine starters back on a unit that allowed just 17.9 ppg but again, they move up. The nonconference schedule is not horrible but the schedule makers did them no favors as four C-USA games are against teams coming off a bye.

 2024 Big 12 Conference Preview

By Matt Fargo 

https://topsportscappers.com/index.php

Regular Season Win Totals and Big 12 Championship Odds (via DraftKings)

Kansas State: 9.5 Over +125 Under -150/+380 Big 12 Winner

Utah: 9.5 Over -145 Under +125/+320 Big 12 Winner

Kansas: 8 Over -135 Under +115/+950 Big 12 Winner

Arizona: 7.5 Over -115 Under -105/+1,100 Big 12 Winner

Iowa State: 7.5 Over -120 Under +100/+950 Big 12 Winner

Oklahoma State: 8 Over -130 Under +110/+750 Big 12 Winner

TCU: 7.5 Over +125 Under -150/+1,800 Big 12 Winner

Texas Tech: 7.5 Over -105 Under -115/+1,400 Big 12 Winner

UCF: 7.5 Over -125 Under +105/+900 Big 12 Winner

West Virginia: 6.5 Over -130 Under +110/+1,800 Big 12 Winner

Baylor: 5.5 Over +100 Under -120/+6,000 Big 12 Winner

Cincinnati: 5 Over -160 Under +135/+8,000 Big 12 Winner

Colorado: 5.5 Over -135 Under +115/+2,800 Big 12 Winner

Arizona State: 4.5 Over +140 Under -170/+10,000 Big 12 Winner

BYU: 4.5 Over +105 Under -125/+12,000 Big 12 Winner

Houston: 3.5 Over -160 Under +135/+11,000 Big 12 Winner

Coaching Changes

Arizona: Jedd Fisch Out ~ Brent Brennen In

Houston: Dana Holgorsen Out ~ Willie Fritz In

Kansas State Wildcats 9-4 ~ 6-3 Big 12 ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 8

Kansas St. is coming off another solid season as it went 9-4 and it could have been even better. All four losses were by one possession including two by three points, one against Texas in overtime. We say another solid season because the Wildcats have won eight or more games 10 times over the past 13 seasons and that includes a four-win COVID season. Kansas St. is loaded again on both sides of the ball and has a legitimate shot at the Big 12 Championship Game. Avery Johnson takes over at quarterback for Will Howard, who left for Ohio St., and he is one of the most significant recruits the Wildcats have landed in a long time. He has the three top receivers back in Jadon Jackson, Jayce Brown and Keagan Johnson and one of the top running back in the conference in DJ Giddens who rushed for 1,226 yards last season. Defensively, Kansas St. was right on par with the numbers from 2022 and 2023 and this season they should improve as they have six players that could legitimately be on the All-Big 12 teams. Nothing will be easy in this conference but the Wildcats schedule is not bad. They actually play 10 conference teams but Arizona will not count. They only face one team coming off a bye, Colorado, and they are coming off a bye as well to make it a wash.

Utah Utes 8-5 ~ 5-4 Pac 12 ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 9

Injuries took their toll on the Utes last season right from the start and while the 8-5 season was not what they envisioned, it was still something to be proud of and they gained experience from it. Utah is once again picked to finish at or near the top of the conference but this time it is the Big 12 yet they will still be squaring off against some familiar faces and barring any repeat injuries, anything short of the Big 12 Championship Game will be a disappointment. Neither quarterback Cam Rising nor his leading target tight end Brant Kuithe saw the field last season and the offense suffered as they dropped 15.4 ppg and nearly 120 ypg from their 2023 averages but both are back to full health. Utah brought in USC/Arizona transfer Dorian Singer (1,683 yards in 27 games) and while the offensive line lost three starters, they are always deep and experienced. Utah did not miss a beat on defense which has been the case every year for a while as it finished No. 14 overall and No. 20 in points allowed. The Utes bring back nine starters, needing to replace just one linebacker and one corner so an even better defense could surface this season. The Utes do not leave the state for any of its nonconference games with the only road game at Utah St. and in the Big 12, they miss Kansas and Kansas St.

Kansas Jayhawks 9-4 ~ 5-4 Big 12 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 6

The Jayhawks have taken one of the biggest steps in all of college football over the last couple seasons as they have come close to knocking on the door since head coach Lance Leipold took over the program in 2021 and made it his own. Kansas has won eight Big 12 Conference games the last two seasons after winning eight conference games in the previous 13 seasons combined. It will be an interesting year for the Jayhawks as they have a lot of obstacles to get around but if they can stay healthy, they have the potential to play with anyone in this conference. Quarterback Jalon Daniels was on pace for a monster season and was a sneaky Heisman Trophy candidate but he ended up hurting his back after three games and never came back, electing to take a redshirt. Jason Bean was a solid backup but the offense was not as dynamic as it was with Daniels. Six players had at least 172 yards receiving last season and five of those are back that totaled 1,938 yards while leading rusher Devin Neal is back after running for 1,209 yards and 15 touchdowns. The Big 12 schedule is fairly tame as they miss four of the other top seven teams but they will be playing all of their home games off campus because of renovations taking place at Memorial Stadium which is a big disadvantage.

Arizona Wildcats 10-3 ~ 7-2 Pac 12 ~ 10-2-0 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7

Arizona was the big surprise in the Pac 12 Conference last season as many publications and polls had the Wildcats finishing near the bottom of the league but after a 3-3 start with two of those losses in overtime, they won their final seven games to close the season. While Arizona would have contended in its old conference, it will be able to contend in its new conference as well. Last season was its first 10-win campaign in a decade and just its second since 1998 so this once proud and dominant program has been stuck in mediocrity for some time. Head coach Jedd Fisch bolted for Washington but left the team in great shape for Brent Brennen who comes over from San Jose St. The offense finished No. 18 overall and No. 20 in scoring behind quarterback Noah Fifita so the offense is again in great hands. Leading receiver Tetairoa McMillan, who had 1,402 yards is back but the next three wideouts are gone so replacements are needed. Two transfer running backs from the MWC who averaged over a combined 2,000 yards take over for Jonah Coleman. The defense was a top 40 unit and is loaded outside from the line which could use help. The Wildcats have five Big 12 home games and while they have Utah on the road, the other three are manageable so they will be in the mix.

Iowa State Cyclones 7-6 ~ 6-3 Big 12 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 9

After a rough start where the Cyclones opened 2-3, they closed the season 5-2 before losing in the Liberty Bowl 36-26 to Memphis so all-in-all, it was a quality year as they shook off their 4-8 season in 2022. Head coach Matt Campbell has put together six winning seasons in his eight years in Ames and this season has the potential to be the best one yet should it stay healthy because of the back loaded slate. The Cyclones have 19 starters back and are the third most experienced team in the country, trailing only Oklahoma St. and Virginia Tech. After going 21-5 at home from 2018-2021, they went just 6-7 the last two seasons so getting that home mojo back is essential. The only starter lost on offense is at tight end but they are deep at that position. Quarterback Rocco Becht was excellent as a freshman and should only get better. Not only does Iowa St. bring back nine starters on defense, they are all either juniors or seniors so the experience is even greater with the veteran presence. The Cyclones were second in the conference in defense, trailing CFP participant Texas. Do not be surprised with a 6-0 start with a game at Iowa being the real difficult test but then it really toughens up with five bowl teams from last season, plus an improved Cincinnati team and it closes with Utah and Kansas St.

Oklahoma State Cowboys 10-4 ~ 7-2 Big 12 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 9

With nine teams stamped with 7.5 or higher win totals, this is a top heavy Big 12 Conference that can turn into a wide open battle and the Cowboys will certainly be a player with loads of talent and experience. Their 10 wins were the seventh time in the last 13 seasons with double-digit victories so this is a program that has been consistently above average under head coach Mike Gundy, who has only one losing season, his first one in Stillwater, in his 19 years here. Oklahoma St. is the most experienced team in the country after coming in as one of the most inexperienced last season. This offense is loaded with 10 starters back behind quarterback Alan Bowman and he cannot feel more comfortable. He has All-American and the 2023 leading rusher in the country Ollie Gorgon II behind him, five seniors on the offense line that is second in the country in combined starts with 214 and a pair of receivers that combined for 164 catches and 1,886 yards. Oklahoma St. was not good on defense as it as No. 124 overall and No. 92 in points allowed with six returning starters, right in line with 2022 when it had four starters back but now nine are back. They open the Big 12 with games against Utah and Kansas St. so we will see early on what they are made of and they avoid Kansas and Arizona.

TCU Horned Frogs 5-7 ~ 3-6 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 9

After making the College Football Playoff in 2022, it was an expected down season in 2023 as the Horned Frogs had only 10 starters back, including just three on offense, and a 1-5 midseason run did them in. It was only the sixth losing season since 1997 as head coach Gary Patterson created a dynasty with 11 double-digit win seasons and six final Top 10 rankings. He left in 2021 after four mediocre campaigns and Sonny Dykes was one win away from a National Championship in his first season. TCU should be better off with a much more experienced team and after nearly the same averages on defense in 2023 with seven starters back as it had in 2022, the Horned Frogs bring back nine starters this season. Additionally, they hired former Boise St. head coach Andy Avalos to serve as defensive coordinator. Quarterback John Hoover was pretty solid as a freshman but there is a lot of room for improvement and losing three starters along the offensive line will not help. 1,272-yard rusher Emani Bailey is gone so someone has to step up but Hoover gets his two top receivers back. The conference schedule is a brutal one as they do avoid Kansas St. but have games at Kansas and Utah to go along with home games against Texas Tech, Arizona, and Oklahoma St.

Texas Tech Red Raiders 7-6 ~ 5-4 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 5

It was a third straight winning season for Texas Tech, including its third straight bowl win but as has been the case for the last 14 years, it was nothing special. The Red Raiders defeated only one team with a winning record, Kansas, and they have not surpassed eight victories over that 14-year stretch. To their credit, or to at least give them a little justification, they did play nine teams that went to bowl games and five of their six losses were against teams that finished with nine or more wins but to become a team to compete for championships, some of those losses need to become wins. It all starts with the offense that finished No. 65 overall last season with 387.1 ypg, the first time since 2000 that it tallied fewer than 400 ypg. Quarterback Behren Morton was hurt on and off and is fully healthy but there will be a mostly new receiving corps in place so it may take time. They will again depend on Tahj Brooks who rushed for 1,538 yards behind a strong offensive line. The defense was not great but limited opponents to under 400 yards, the first time since 2012 that has happened. They avoid Utah and Kansas St. but the three toughest conference games against Arizona, Iowa St. and Oklahoma St. are all on the road so taking the first five winnable games is important.

UCF Knights 6-7 ~ 3-6 Big 12 ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

The first season in the Big 12 did not go well for UCF as it went 3-0 in its nonconference games but opened conference action with five straight losses. The Knights did rally to win three of their last four games to become bowl eligible but lost to Georgia Tech 30-17 in the Gasparilla Bowl. It easily could have been a better season as they were on the plus side in yardage differential in Big 12 games despite being 3-6 as three of the losses were by a combined four points. The offense was one of the best in the country as UCF finished No. 3 with 527.7 ypg and this was with quarterbacks John Rhys Plumlee and Timmy McClain splitting time because of injuries. Taking over will be KJ Jefferson who comes in from Arkansas after starting 38 games for the Razorbacks and his duel threat ability will fit well. They lose their top receiver but two starters are back and UCF will rely on running back RJ Harvey who rushed for 1,476 yards but the offensive line brings back only 58 starts, second fewest in the conference. Defensively, the Knights could not stop the run as they were fifth worst in the country has to improve in front of an elite secondary. The Knights miss Kansas, Kansas St. and Oklahoma St. and get Utah and Arizona at home so the Big 12 schedule is on their side, they just have to execute.

West Virginia Mountaineers 9-4 ~ 6-3 Big 12 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 5

West Virginia was picked to finish bottom three or four in the Big 12 Conference last season with head coach Neal Brown firmly on the hot seat. But the Mountaineers did not listen to the naysayers as they put together their first nine-win season since 2016 when they won 10 games and they look to build upon that. They got blown out in the opener against Penn St. before reeling off four straight wins prior to a brutal last second loss to Houston and they closed the season with five wins in their last six games, the only loss coming against Oklahoma. The job is safe for Brown barring a complete implosion and that should not happen with this offense which finished No. 27 overall with 434.6 ypg, the most since 2017. Most of the pieces are back, led by quarterback Garrett Greene, while the top three running backs and four of the top five receivers return. Defensively, the numbers were not great but West Virginia led the Big 12 in sacks and the secondary was another strength. Their leading tackler is gone and the secondary needs to replace three of four starters but the Mountaineers used the transfer portal to reload and should be just fine. They open with Penn St. again but this time at home while the conference schedule is a bear as they play all of the top teams expect for Utah.

Baylor Bears 3-9 ~ 2-7 Big 12 ~ 3-8-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 9

The Bears have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the country over the last few years and it has been extreme. They went from three straight 10-win seasons from 2013-2015 to one win in 2017. Baylor then went back up to 11 wins in 2019 and 12 wins in 2021 only to have a losing season in 2022 and then fell back further to only three wins last season. Since 2009, Baylor has had four or fewer wins four times and the previous three follow up years, it came back with a winning season so 2024 is ready for another bounce back season and it looks possible. Baylor is the fourth most experienced team in the Big 12 Conference and the highest ranking of all teams that did not make a bowl games last season. Baylor struggled on offense last season, finishing No. 72 but the only replacement needs to be made at tight end so it should improve considerably. Six of nine losses last year were by double digits as the defense imploded when the offense was average but nine starters are back so there should be improvement on this side of the ball as well. Baylor misses Arizona and Kansas St. and the game against Utah counts as a nonconference game and while the rest of the Big 12 slate is no cakewalk, the Bears do get Oklahoma St. and Kansas at home.

Cincinnati Bearcats 3-9 ~ 1-8 Big 12 ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7

The Bearcats were one of the three teams that came over from the AAC and all three struggled in their new conference while Cincinnati was the most likely for that to happen. They had only eight starters coming back along with a new head coach and the uptick in strength of schedule led to their fewest wins overall since 1999. Now in the second year in the system of head coach Scott Satterfield while bringing back close to double the number of returning starters, we should see some positive progression. Cincinnati was very good offensively, averaging 426.1 ypg which was No. 34 but it could not get into the endzone as it was just No. 84 in scoring. Indiana transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby comes into a good situation with the top rusher and receiver back along with all five starters on the offensive line returning. Averaging 24.1 ppg will not get it done as turnovers killed some good ball movement last season so mistakes have to come down. The defense allowed its most yards and most points since 2017 which happened to be its last losing season and Cincinnati hit the transfer portal hard along all three levels to improve their unit as a whole. The Bearcats have a good conference slate by avoiding Utah, Arizona, Oklahoma St. and Kansas but the tougher games are on the road.

Colorado Buffaloes 4-8 ~ 1-8 Pac 12 ~ 7-4-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 8

The Buffaloes were the story of college football heading into last season whether looking for the good or the bad and we were treated to both. Colorado opened the season 3-0 and jumped into the AP Poll at No. 18 but then things went south quickly. The Buffaloes were blown out by Oregon by 37 points which started a 1-8 run to end the season, the lone victory against 3-9 Arizona St. There were certain factors compounding the skid including injuries and a defense that could not stop anyone. Head coach Deion Sanders make his mark, which was his goal, and his coaching style from the go was not for everyone as after an unprecedented 53 transfers coming in last season, 40 players took off at the end of the year. The Buffaloes have one of the best playmakers in quarterback Shedeur Sanders who led the No. 15 ranked passing offense and also have the dynamic two-way player Travis Hunter, part of eight starters but the Buffaloes were dead last in rushing and they need to find some balance. Eight starters are back on the other side to improve the defense that finished No. 129 overall and No. 124 in scoring. The good news from the Colorado schedule is that it gets Baylor and Cincinnati. The bad news is that the other seven conference games are against teams with win totals of 7.5 or higher.

Arizona State Sun Devils 3-9 ~ 2-7 Pac 12 ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 4

Last season was chalked up as a likely rebuilding season for Arizona St. under first year head coach Kenny Dillingham and that is what it turned into. It was the second straight 3-9 season for the Sun Devils following four straight winning campaigns, not counting the COVID season, and this was the first time they finished with fewer than four wins in consecutive seasons since 1946 so to say this can be considered rock bottom would not be false. Arizona St. was the only Pac 12 team that lost to Colorado but five of their losses were to teams ranked No. 18 or higher and they did have a stretch of three straight losses by one possession so they were not the worst team around. Still, it will be tough to vastly improve this season with just 10 starters back and facing the No. 3 toughest schedule in the country. There will be a quarterback battle between incumbent Trenton Bourguet and Michigan St. transfer Sam Leavitt and they have to replace their top two receivers so they will rely on leading rusher Cameron Skattebo early on. The defense was not much better but was skewed by three of the last four games where they allowed 55, 49 and 59 points when they were already toast. The nonconference slate is doable but 0-3 in still out there while the Sun Devils face five of the top six teams in the Big 12.

BYU Cougars 5-7 ~ 2-7 Big 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 6

Life as an Independent treated BYU well as it could formulate its own schedule and in 12 seasons, it came away with a winning campaign in 11 of those and that was after five straight winning seasons in the MWC. So last season was one of two losing slates since 2005 as the Big 12 showed its teeth and the conference will be just as good if not better this season. The Cougars did have major injury issues midway through the season which attributed to their 0-5 finish so they are starting fresh with a good amount of experience coming back. Quarterback Kedon Slovis brought talent and experience but he struggled through eight games and missed the final four games due to arm injuries. The Cougars brought in Gerry Bohanon, who made 19 starts at Baylor and USF and they have six of their top seven receivers back as well as their leading rusher and it ultimately comes down to the offensive line to make a bigger push. The defense was good the first two games but they did hardly anything good after that, finishing No. 108 overall and No. 99 in points allowed. Injuries crushed the secondary and they are now healthy and the front seven has three real playmakers. The schedule does them no favors as they face five of the top six teams in the Big 12 but BYU does get four of those at home.

Houston Cougars 4-8 ~ 2-7 Big 12 ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5

It has been a revolving door on the Houston sideline, whether it be a voluntary departure or a forced one, as the Cougars are now on their eighth head coach since 2000 as they parted ways with Dana Holgorsen following a 4-8 season and brought in Willie Fritz who led Tulane to a 23-4 record including a split in the two ACC Championship Games. He definitely has his work cut out for him as the Cougars were all over the place, losing games they could have won, getting blown out in others and winning three games by a combined six points. The offense showed flashes but it was too inconsistent and there were too many mistakes. Quarterback Donovan Smith threw for 2,801 yards and 22 touchdowns while he ran for 428 yards and six scores but he threw 13 interceptions and a new system should do him good. He has two solid veteran receivers returning along with leading rusher Parker Jenkins but the offensive line needs work. Defensively, Houston ranked No. 101 or worse in scoring defense, rushing defense, passing defense and overall defense, its worst total output in five years. Only five starters are back on this side as well with the transfer portal needing a big impact. Houston is another team facing five of the top six teams in the Big 12, avoiding only Oklahoma St.

 2024 Big 10 Conference Preview

https://topsportscappers.com/index.php

By Matt Fargo 

Regular Season Win Totals and Big 10 Championship Odds (via DraftKings)

Ohio State: 10.5 Over -150 Under +125/+155 Big 10 Winner

Oregon: 10.5 Over +100 Under -120/+200 Big 10 Winner

Penn State: 10.5 Over +140 Under -165/+500 Big 10 Winner

Michigan: 9 Over +115 Under -135/+700 Big 10 Winner

Iowa: 8 Over -135 Under +115/+3,500 Big 10 Winner

Nebraska: 7.5 Over -125 Under +105/+5,500 Big 10 Winner

USC: 7.5 Over +105 Under -125/+2,000 Big 10 Winner

Washington: 6.5 Over -105 Under -115/+8,000 Big 10 Winner

Maryland: 6.5 Over +100 Under -130/+10,000 Big 10 Winner

Rutgers: 6 Over -140 Under +120/+12,000 Big 10 Winner

Wisconsin: 7 Over +120 Under -140/+6,500 Big 10 Winner

Illinois: 5.5 Over +105 Under -125/+20,000 Big 10 Winner

Indiana: 5.5 Over -135 Under +115/+20,000 Big 10 Winner

Northwestern: 4.5 Over -120 Under +100/+20,000 Big 10 Winner

UCLA: 5 Over +115 Under -135/+15,000 Big 10 Winner

Michigan State: 5 Over -105 Under -115/+20,000 Big 10 Winner

Minnesota: 5.5 Over +100 Under -120/+18,000 Big 10 Winner

Purdue: 4.5 Over +135 Under -160/+30,000 Big 10 Winner

Coaching Changes

Indiana: Tom Allen Out ~ Curt Cignetti In

Michigan: Jim Harbaugh Out ~ Sherrone Moore In

Michigan State: Mel Tucker Out ~ Jonathan Smith In

UCLA: Chip Kelly Out ~ DeShaun Foster In

Washington: Kalen DeBoer Out ~ Jedd Fisch In

Ohio State Buckeyes 11-2 ~ 8-1 Big 10 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 3-9-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 9

The last three seasons for Ohio St. have been nearly identical and the Buckeyes are looking for that to change. Three straight 11-2 finishes is fantastic but there has been one roadblock and that is hated rival Michigan. Ohio St. has gone into the season finale ranked No. 2 in the country and all three times it came away with a loss. That should reverse this year with the Buckeyes loaded roaster and the Wolverines going through some retooling. Head coach Ryan Day is an outstanding 56-8 in six seasons but the Michigan bleeding has to stop. They lost quarterback Kyle McCord to the transfer portal but got Will Howard through the portal from Kansas St. and now they have Chip Kelly calling the plays. Ohio St. lost a lot at receiver but there is plenty of depth and new blood while possessing arguably the best running back tandem in the country. The defense is even more loaded with 10 upperclassmen starting and they should be even better than their No. 4 overall ranking last season and No. 2 in points scored. The Buckeyes schedule helps out as it is in the bottom third of the Big 10 in terms of strength, partly due a nonconference slate that rivals Michigan from last year as they face Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall. The two big challenges will be games at Oregon and at Penn St.

Oregon Ducks 12-2 ~ 8-1 Pac 12 ~ 10-2-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 9

Oregon was ever so close to a trip to the CFP last season but Washington was too tough to take down twice. In two years under head coach Dan Lanning, the Ducks are 22-5, Washington accounting for three of the losses, Georgia being the fourth and a four-point loss at rival Oregon St. in the Civil War. Now, they head to a bigger and tougher conference but the good news is that they just as good and the expanded CFP will only help them out. The offense was potent under quarterback Bo Nix, ranking No. 1 passing and No. 2 in both total offense and scoring. Nix is now in the NFL but Oregon reloaded and brought in former Oklahoma and UCF quarterback Dillon Gabriel who is now in his sixth season. The Ducks also lost their top running back and receiver but are not without returning star power while four of five offensive linemen are back. The defense has a ton of experience thanks to the transfer portal mostly helping the secondary that lost three of four starters. They finished No. 22 overall and should improve based on the schedule. The Ducks have a couple challenges in the nonconference with a visit from Boise St. and a trip to Corvallis while the Big 10 schedule is not bad at all as they miss Penn St., Iowa and USC and while they do play Ohio St. the game is in Eugene.

Penn State Nittany Lions 10-3 ~ 7-2 Big 10 ~ 9-3-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 7

Penn St. has been good, just not good enough. Over the last eight seasons, five have resulted in double-digit wins but there has not been a trip to the CFP and only one time did they make it to the Big 10 Championship game. Penn St. has started 5-0, 5-0 and 6-0 the last three campaigns but failed to keep it going with three conference losses to teams ranked in the top five and then were not able to fully recover. This season could be different as they are the fourth most experienced team in the conference, face a doable schedule and of course, the CFP is expanded. The offense scored 30 or more points nine times but scored only 27 points combined against Ohio St. and Michigan and they finished No. 12 overall in scoring. Quarterback Drew Allar had a 25:2 TD:INT ratio but completed only 60 percent of his passes, loses two of his top three receivers as well as three offensive linemen so it could take time. Defensively is where they will dominate again after finishing No. 2 overall and No. 3 in points allowed and the Nittany Lions are strong on all three levels to lead the team early on. Penn St. will likely get off to another undefeated 5-0 start but then there is a trip to USC. The two real tough tests after that are against Ohio St. and Washington, but those are both at home.

Michigan Wolverines 15-0 ~ 9-0 Big 10 ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 2/Defense 5

Michigan is coming off its first National Championship since 1997 in its third straight season making the CFP. The Wolverines were 84-21 under head coach Jim Harbaugh taking out the 2-4 COVID season and now that he is off to the NFL again, it will be up to former offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore to keep the magic going. Moore did go 4-0 in the four games he coached when Harbaugh was suspended so he is not totally coming in raw. Michigan was gashed by the NFL Draft as it lost 16 starters and comes in as the second least experience team in the conference so while there certainly is talent, it could be a struggle early. The only starters back on offense are the tight end and one offensive lineman so there is work to be done for whichever quarterback wins the starting job. Nearly 3,000 yards of offense was lost from the running back and receiver positions. Defensively, Michigan will be much better off so even though the No. 1 ranked unit from last season will take a step down, it should be a huge descent. Only five starters are back but they are strong up front and in the middle but the secondary needs work. The schedule is a mix of brutal and easy as Michigan has Texas, USC, Oregon and Ohio St. but the Buckeyes are the only game on the road of the four.

Iowa Hawkeyes 10-4 ~ 7-2 Big 10 ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 2-10-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 8

Similar to Penn St., Iowa has been good, just not good enough. The Hawkeyes are coming off another double-digit win season, their third over the last four years excluding the 2020 COVID season and last season, made their second Big Ten Championship game only to get ambushed by Michigan both times by a combined 68-3. Heah coach Kirk Ferenz will be entering his 26th season and after a couple rough first years following Hayden Fry, he has had only two losing campaigns over the last 23. That is consistency but consistency is not good enough unless championships are involved and Iowa could be at its closest yet. The offense has regressed the last three seasons, bottoming out last season with 234.6 ypg and 15.4 ppg, No. 133 and No. 132 respectively. New offensive coordinator Tim Lester was brought in to turn this around and part of the problem last year was that quarterback Cade McNamara was hurt in August and was never the same while missing 9 games. They have to be better. The defense had to make up for it which it did, ranking No. 7 overall and No. 4 in scoring. Eight starters are back so it should be more of the same. Iowa St. comes to visit and then there is a trip to Ohio St. followed by a home game against Washington and it is all downhill after that.

Nebraska Cornhuskers 5-7 ~ 3-6 Big 10 ~ 4-7-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8

Nebraska is a sexy pick to make a lot of noise in the conference and it is possible with what it has on the roster but it will come down to what the so-called quarterback whisperer can do. This once Blue Blood program endured its seventh consecutive losing season in 2023, the first one for head coach Matt Rhule and you can tell the culture is changing. Even last year could have been better with even average play as the offense was stuck in neutral most of the time yet the Huskers lost five games by one possession including their last four games where a win in one of those and they were bowl bound. Freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola looks to be the savior as he comes to Lincoln as a five-star recruit and looks to start right away which is smart given the soft frontend schedule. Four of five starters are back along the offensive line and transfer help at receiver will ease him in. The defense kept the Huskers in those close games as in those five losses, the offense scored no more than 17 points and scored 10 three times. Eight starters are back from the unit that finished No. 11 in total defense and they will be stout again. Nebraska could and should start the season 7-0 but then come big boys with four of the last five at Ohio St., at USC, at Iowa and hosting UCLA.

USC Trojans 8-5 ~ 5-4 Pac 12 ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 9-3-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 9

The Trojans were ranked No. 6 in the Preseason AP Poll, made it to No. 5 and after a 6-0 start, they suffered a 28-point loss at home to Notre Dame and the bottom fell out. That started a 1-5 run to end the regular season and it ended up being the fourth time in five seasons, not counting 2020, that they finished outside the AP Top 25. The expectations are not as high as they move to a new conference and less expectations can be a very good thing. Behind quarterback Caleb Williams, the offense was one of the best around as USC was ranked No. 10 thanks to a passing attack that was No. 5. Backup Miller Moss played in the Holiday Bowl against Louisville and he was great and should be the starter but UNLV transfer Jayden Maiva will give him a push. Each of the top two rushers and receivers are gone as well but there is good returning experienced talent to take over behind a strong offensive line. The Trojans season was lost because of the defense that allowed an average of 42.4 ppg over their last eight games, winning three of those by just 10 points combined. There is talent and experience but it will take a lot for a huge improvement. USC avoids Ohio St. and Oregon but has LSU and Notre Dame and in the Big 10, it goes to Michigan, Washington and UCLA while hosting Penn St.

Washington Huskies 14-1 ~ 9-0 Pac 12 ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 2/Defense 4

It was a great story in Spokane which was expected as the Huskies came in as a Top 10 team and rolled in their first four games. Then good fortunes came in as the next 10 wins were all by 10 points or less, seven by a touchdown before getting beat by 21 points against Michigan in the CFP Championship. To their credit, good teams win the majority of those close games but great teams win them all so Washington was certainly the latter. Now it looks to be a complete rebuild with head coach Kalen DeBoer gone to Alabama and with 13 players off to the NFL and along with the transfer portal, 16 starters have to be replaced. New head coach Jedd Fisch mastered a quick three-year turnaround at Arizona and he will look to at least keep the Huskies somewhat in contention. Washington is the least experienced team in the Big 10 so there will be a lot of growing up to do. The offense was great but will have a different look with Mississippi St. transfer quarterback Will Rogers coming in and having to replace the top eight receivers and leading rusher. Defensively, the Huskies barely got by and new defensive coordinator Stephen Belichick was brought in to turn it around. A 5-0 start is likely against inferior competition to get the kinks out but then we will see what the Huskies possess.

Maryland Terrapins 8-5 ~ 4-5 Big 10 ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 4/Defense 8

Maryland has put together three straight winning seasons culminating with three bowl wins and after a rough first season in 2019, head coach Mike Locksley has job security at a non-traditional Big 10 program. The expansion of the conference further nationwide definitely helps a team like the Terrapins with greater exposure even though if it means tougher competition. That will not necessarily be the case this season but the Big 10 will never be a cakewalk so getting to eight wins again will be a challenge. What makes it even more of a challenge is that Maryland has to replace the All Time Big 10 passing leader Taulia Tagovailoa who led it to that success. There is no clear cut favorite heading into fall camp with four candidates but will likely come down to Billy Edwards, who was the Music City Bowl MVP, and NC State transfer MJ Morris. The receiving corps is loaded with six of the top eight pass catchers back as well as the top two running backs. Maryland has improved on defense yardage wise each of the last five years and the Terrapins bring back a strong front seven but do need some help in the secondary. They open the season with five games against non-bowl teams then host Northwestern. USC, Oregon, Iowa and Penn St. make up four of the final six games.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights 7-6 ~ 3-6 Big 10 ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 8

After a 6-2 start last season, it was the quickest Rutgers had became bowl eligible since 2012 when it started 7-0 and last season was the first one with a winning record since 2014. It did not end well with four straight losses to end the regular season but those were all against teams that finished with eight or more wins and they closed with a Pinstripe Bowl win over Miami to bring some confidence into this season. The Scarlet Knights bring back a very experienced team, the second most experienced team in the Big 10 in fact, so they could present some problems and it helps having the second easiest schedule in the conference. The passing game was non-existent last season as Rutgers finished No. 127 in passing offense and they completed only 48 percent of their passes. They brought in Minnesota transfer Athan Kaliakmanis and while he did not have a great 2023 season, he will be a big upgrade. The receiving corps is also upgraded and the leading rusher is back. The defense kept them in games, finishing No. 16 overall and eight starters are back with experience across all three levels. A game at Virginia Tech is the only nonconference test and in the Big 10, they miss Ohio St., Michigan and Penn St., which they are on a 0-27 run against, as well as Oregon.

Wisconsin Badgers 7-6 ~ 5-4 Big 10 ~ 4-6-2 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

It was not a great season for Wisconsin but not for anything else, it showed character in its first year under head coach Luke Fickell. The Badgers opened the season 5-2 but lost three straight games including a pair of losses against Indiana and Northwestern as big favorites yet they showed their fight and won in overtime against Nebraska to become bowl eligible. A win in the final week against Minnesota solidified its 22nd consecutive season with a winning record which is currently the most among all Power Four teams but beyond that, there has been nothing spectacular happening. This will be a tough season for major improvement based on the conference expansion and their schedule. The offense was average as it has been for the last four seasons and they should get a passing game going with Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke coming in and he will have the top two receivers back. The running game will be fine with four of five offensive linemen returning. The defense was above average which is always the case but the 343.7 ypg allowed was the most given up since 2007 and they will improve. The schedule is the fourth toughest in the conference as Wisconsin has Alabama in the nonconference while travelling to USC, Iowa and Nebraska and hosting Penn St. and Oregon.

Illinois Fighting Illini 5-7 ~ 3-6 Big 10 ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 7

Illinois head coach Bret Bielema came into a tough situation in 2021 despite 18 returning starters but the talent was not there and the Illini opened 2-5 and was unable to get that sixth win. Illinois went 8-5 in 2022, the first winning season since 2011, but took a step back last season with a 5-7 campaign that included a pair of excruciating two-point losses to end the season denying them a bowl game and it is back to the drawing board. It was not a completely lost season as the offense had its best season since 2019 and the Illini actually outgained their Big 10 opponents despite a 3-6 record but their defense let them down. Illinois was sensational in Bielema's first year but the unit dropped by 104 ypg and 16.6 ppg, despite having a First Team All American defensive end, and that is hard for an offense to make up for. The secondary was the big issue yet there is experience back there this season but now the entire defensive line has to be replaced. The offense did not have prolific numbers but actually had the third best passing attack in the conference and quarterback Luke Altmyer takes over full time and they could be potent. The Illini only have four Big 10 home games but Michigan is the only true test but of the five road games, two of those are at Oregon and Penn St.

Indiana Hoosiers 3-9 ~ 1-8 Big 10 ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 11

The Tom Allen era ended after seven years that included only two winning seasons and it concluded with a 9-27 record the last three years. The Hoosiers went with an upcoming name, hiring Curt Cignetti from James Madison where he compiled a 52-10 record in five seasons including a 19-5 record at the FBS level. The 3-9 record last season, which included a win against Indiana St. of the FCS and a win over 2-10 Akron that took four overtimes, was not surprising as the Hoosiers brought back only eight starters but now have 21 of 22 starters back which does include many transfer starts with a lot of those from James Madison. The offense was abysmal but that should change with the addition of Ohio transfer quarterback Kurtis Rourke who was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year in 2022. Every running back is gone but Cignetti brought over leading rusher Kaelon Block with him and the receiving corps with JMU transfers. It is the same on the other side with defensive end Mikail Kamara, defensive tackle James Carpenter and linebackers Aiden Fisher and Jailin Walker all coming over from James Madison. The mini Dukes have the easiest schedule in the Big 10 with games against UCLA, Michigan and Ohio St. being the only big tests while the three nonconference games should be wins.

Northwestern Wildcats 8-5 ~ 5-4 Big 10 ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

Head coach Pat Fitzgerald was fired in July because of hazing allegations and that was probably not a bad thing anyway considering Northwestern was coming off a 4-20 record the previous two seasons. David Braum was hired from North Dakota St. where he was defensive coordinator so it was supposed to be a lost season yet the team fought through adversity with just 11 starters back and won its final three games to become bowl eligible and took out Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl. Repeating that success will be difficult as the Wildcats were pretty fortunate in that they won six of their games by one possession. The offense dropped 31 ypg from 2022 yet averaged 8.2 more ppg and the reason is that they had only nine turnovers which included an unthinkable one fumble. The Wildcats lose their quarterback and leading receiver but four starters return on the offensive line as well as their leading back. Defensively, Northwestern went through a stretch of allowing 20 points or less in five of six games and while they have eight starters back, there should be regression. The schedule is not great but doable. However, Ryan Field is going through renovations so five home games will be at a temporary on campus location with two others at Wrigley Field and Soldier Field so this is a big disadvantage.

UCLA Bruins 8-5 ~ 4-5 Pac 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 2-10-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 5

After a rough start at UCLA, Chip Kelly put together a 25-13 record over the last three seasons but he decided to leave and take the offensive coordinator job at Ohio St. which is arguably a step up and DeShaun Foster takes over where he was the running backs coach. UCLA is considered an elite high profile program but that is questionable considering is has not had a double-digit winning season since 2014 and has had consecutive double-digit winning seasons only three times in the history of the program. The defense was the catalyst as the Bruins were No. 10 in the country overall and No. 12 in points allowed but they are going to see a drastic drop in those rankings. They have only five starters back and two losses up front are probably two of the biggest in the country with edges Laiatu Latu and Gabriel Murphy combining for 21 sacks and 37.5 tackles for loss. The offense took a huge step back from 2022, averaging 12.7 ppg and 77 ypg less and that should improve with the hiring of Eric Bienemy as offensive coordinator so while there was a reversal of both units last season, it will be reversed in 2023. UCLA left the west coast only once last season when it went to Utah, but this season it leaves the time zone five times and plays the second hardest schedule in the country.

Michigan State Spartans 4-8 ~ 2-7 Big 10 ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

The once proud Spartans program has taken a step back the last two seasons with a 9-15 record with the coaching situation turning into a mess. Mel Tucker came in during the COVID season but led Michigan St. to an 11-2 record in 2021 but then lost its last two games in 2022 to finish 5-7 and then Tucker was fired last season after a 2-0 start because of sexual allegations and the season ended up being a dumpster fire. In comes Jonathan Smith who turned around a fledging Oregon St. program with three straight winning seasons in his five years there. He has the resources and the history to turn this place around but it will not be overnight. His first job will be to try and turn around an offense that went from 31.8 ppg in 2021 to 24.4 ppg in 2022 to 15.9 ppg last season. The good news is that quarterback Aidan Chiles followed Smith to East Lansing and while he lacks experience, he is a playmaker with huge potential and already knows the incoming system. The Spartans have been a mess on defense for the last five seasons and while there will probably not be a huge improvement, a ton of starting transfer experience will make it interesting. Five straight weeks midseason against Ohio St., Oregon, Bye, Iowa and Michigan does them no favors which could cook them.

Minnesota Golden Gophers 6-7 ~ 3-6 Big 10 ~ 3-9-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 8

P.J. Fleck has kept Minnesota a winning program and while last season finished 6-7, it closed with a bowl win so it was still positive. While never challenging for the Big 10 title, Minnesota has been good enough to make it to a bowl game 19 times over the last 25 seasons and while the betting win total says it will not be a good year, this team could exceed those expectations. Taking out the 2020 COVID year, this is the best five-season run for the Gophers since 2002-2006 and with the sixth most experienced team in the conference and a fairly light schedule, the run should continue. The offense dipped off considerably as it dropped by more than a touchdown per game and close to 90 yards per game but the Gophers might have brought in a weapon at quarterback with Max Brosmer who is a transfer from New Hampshire where he was a finalist for the FCS Heisman. Having the leading receiver and leading running back and four of five offensive linemen return should get the offense back on track. The defense regressed as well as it allowed nearly 13 more ppg than the previous season but eight true starters are back so the experience is there. The Gophers avoid Ohio St. and Oregon but face the next top four teams although three of those are at home.

Purdue Boilermakers 4-8 ~ 3-6 Big 10 ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 6

After five straight losing seasons, Jeff Brohm was hired in 2017 and turned Purdue around, taking the Boilermakers to a bowl game in four of his six seasons, although one of the non-bowl years was 2020 and he left for Louisville with Ryan Walters taking over last season. He was left with a bare cupboard with only five returning starters on each side of the ball and it showed with a 4-8 record, five of those losses coming by double digits. The Boilermakers are in better shape this season as they come in as the fifth most experienced team in the conference but the schedule will dictate how much, if any, progress they can make. The offense has a lot of potential with Graham Harrell as offensive coordinator and while it was not great last season, it was far from horrible with what was there. Quarterback Hudson Card has the chance to be really good and while the top four receivers are gone, this system can find replacements. Purdue took a step back defensively but not a big one and they are loaded with experience on the back end. Replacing three starters up front is a necessity but two transfers from the SEC can make a difference. The schedule is brutal as it is ranked top ten in the country in strength but at least they get Notre Dame, Oregon and Penn St. at home, not that it will matter.

 2024 Atlantic Coast Conference Preview 8-17-24

https://topsportscappers.com/index.php

By Matt Fargo 

Regular Season Win Totals and ACC Championship Odds (via DraftKings)

Clemson: 9.5 Over +135 Under -160/+350 ACC Winner

Florida State: 9.5 Over -110 Under -110/+290 ACC Winner

Miami: 9 Over -125 Under +105/+400 ACC Winner

Louisville: 8.5 Over +115 Under -135/+650 ACC Winner

NC State: 8.5 Over -130 Under +110/+700 ACC Winner

North Carolina: 7.5 Over -115 Under -105/+3,000 ACC Winner

SMU: 8 Over -135 Under +115/+1,500 ACC Winner

Syracuse: 7.5 Over -115 Under -105/+4,000 ACC Winner

Virginia Tech: 8.5 Over +105 Under -125/+1,000 ACC Winner

Cal: 6 Over -105 Under -115/+9,000 ACC Winner

Duke: 5.5 Over +130 Under -150/+15,000 ACC Winner

Georgia Tech: 5 Over -120 Under +100/+7,500 ACC Winner

Pittsburgh: 5.5 Over +100 Under -120/+15,000 ACC Winner

Wake Forest: 4.5 Over -160 Under +135/+20,000 ACC Winner

Boston College: 5 Over +110 Under -130/+15,000 ACC Winner

Virginia: 4.5 Over +100 Under -120/+20,000 ACC Winner

Stanford: 3.5 Over -160 Under +135/+40,000 ACC Winner

Coaching Changes

Boston College: Jeff Hafley Out ~ Bill O'Brien In

Duke: Mike Elko Out ~ Manny Diaz In

Syracuse: Dino Babers Out ~ Fran Brown In

Clemson Tigers 9-4 ~ 4-4 ACC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 5

A 9-4 season is considered good, if not great, for many teams but not Clemson. The Tigers had their 11-season streak of double-digit wins snapped last season and it finished outside the top 20 in final CFP Poll for the first time ever. Clemson would make a great landing spot for players in the transfer portal and its incoming number of transfers this season is zero. In the current state of college football, all programs are losing players to the portal but are getting additions to make up for it but Clemson head coach Dabo Swinney refuses to go that route and it is catching up. The Tigers do have a lot returning so all is not dire but it is young talent instead of seniors or grad transfers and that can be hard to overcome and a lot of the pressure will fall on quarterback Cade Klubnik. He was not very efficient last season, completing just 63.9 percent of his passes with 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions but he brings back three of his top four receivers in Tyler Brown, Antonio Williams, and Troy Stellato. The loss of do-it-all running back Will Shipley is a big one. Clemson finished No. 8 in total defense and they will rely on that unit to carry them again. The Tigers open with Georgia so we will see early on what this team is made up of and they benefit of having only four true road games.

Florida State Seminoles 13-1 ~ 8-0 ACC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5

The Seminoles got one of the biggest CFP shaft jobs in the nine-year existence of the playoff format as it went undefeated and won the ACC Championship Game but did not make the final four. The argument was that quarterback Jordan Travis was lost in the final regular season game so they would not be the same team and while they were blown out against Georgia, half the team did not play. Nonetheless, Florida St. is back on the map but besides Travis, it lost running back Trey Benson, and receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson. The Seminoles went the transfer route and they should be ok as they got former Clemson and Oregon St. quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, who brings in the duel threat, along with former Alabama running back Roydell Williams and wide receiver Malik Benson. Statistically, the Seminoles were average on offense and relied on their No. 29 ranked defense that allowed 20 points or less in 10 of 14 games and that unit will have to step up early. Overall, Florida St. only returns 56 percent of its production from the previous season, which is No. 88 in the country. They play an odd schedule with eight of their first nine games in the ACC with Memphis mixed in and they close with three nonconference games including one at Notre Dame.

Miami Hurricanes 7-6 ~ 3-5 ACC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 7

For a third consecutive season, expectations are high in Miami and the Hurricane faithful hope that for a third consecutive season, those hopes are not dashed with early losses to derail the season. Head coach Mario Cristobal was considered the perfect hire with his program knowledge and local ties to help recruiting but he has gone just 12-13 and while he may not be on the hot seat, it is getting warm. Probably the most surprising thing about this program is that Miami has not had a double-digit winning season since 2017 which is the only one since 2003. They were decent yet unspectacular on offense last season, finishing No. 32 overall and No. 41 in scoring but they possess arguably the best trio of quarterback, running back and receiver in the ACC with Washington St. transfer Cam Ward, Oregon St. transfer Damien Martinez and 1,191-yard returnee Xavier Restrepo respectively. Ward has thrown for 13,874 yards and 119 touchdowns in four years and will open up the offense that Tyler Van Dyke could not do. The front seven on defense is the strength of the unit and the only big question is replacing two NFL safeties. They open at Florida and will likely be favored in every game going forward, should they continue to win.

Louisville Cardinals 10-4 ~ 7-1 ACC ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7

While Florida St. went undefeated which was considered a surprise, Louisville was arguably the bigger surprise, at least early. The Cardinals opened 6-0 but lost to Pittsburgh due to turnovers as they dominated the stat sheet and then went to 10-1 before losing to Kentucky, one of three losses to close the season. Still, it was a great season for a team picked to finish middle of the pack as first year head coach Jeff Brohm reinvigorated the program for its first double-digit winning season since 2013. Now, a talented roster in their second year in the system along with some significant transfers coming in, there is room to move even more forward. Gone is quarterback Jack Plummer but the Cardinals landed seventh year, yes seventh year, quarterback Tyler Shough from Texas Tech and he has a great receiver and tight end room to work with. Louisville was excellent on defense, ranking No. 21 overall and No. 34 in points allowed and while they lost some key players, there is plenty coming back to keep the unit a force. The strength is with the cornerbacks which is huge in a conference filled with elite passing. The Cardinals have three likely home wins to open the season before going to Notre Dame and while they also go to Clemson, they avoid three of the top five teams.

NC State Wolfpack 9-4 ~ 6-2 ACC ~ 6-5-1 ATS ~ 4-8-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 5

NC State is coming off its fourth nine-win season in the last seven years but it has not been able to hit double digits since an 11-win season in 2002. It has been a consistent program with winning seasons in 12 of the last 14 years but is one of only two teams along with Syracuse, not counting the new members this year, to make it to the ACC Championship Game which goes back to 2005. That could change this year with some help from the teams above as NC State has the fifth easiest schedule in the ACC. Quarterback Brennan Armstrong did not live up to expectations last season and the offense suffered, finishing No. 96 overall and No. 71 in scoring and the Wolfpack brought in Grayson McCall from Coastal Carolina, who was outstanding in his first three years but was hurt most of last season. The receiving corps is explosive led by ACC Freshman of the Year KC Concepcion and some added transfers there and at running back will have them humming. The defense will drop off after losing the Bednarik and Butkus Award linebacker Payton Wilson but should be just fine. The Wolfpack should go 3-1 in nonconference games and ACC action opens at Clemson and closes at North Carolina with the games in-between are ones they should/will win.

North Carolina Tar Heels 8-5 ~ 4-4 ATS ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 6-5-1 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 6/Defense 7

North Carolina was pegged as one of the favorites to make a second straight ACC Championship Game appearance and after a 6-0 start, 3-0 in the ACC, it was looking good with three more winnable games before Clemson but the Tar Heels lost to Virginia as a 23.5-point favorite and the tailspin began. They lost five of their last seven games to finish 8-5 and now expectations are not nearly as high, which may not be a bad thing. North Carolina has had a winning season in four of the five seasons under head coach Mack Brown and has gone to five bowls but that is not the goal and it hopes to sneak up on teams as opposed to being the hunted. Quarterback Drake Maye is in the NFL and there is a quarterback battle going between TCU transfer Max Johnson and sophomore Conner Harrell, who has two years in the system, with the latter performing better in the spring game. There is plenty of receiver depth so while the offense will take a step back, it should not be too drastic. The Tar Heels brought in Geoff Collins as the new defensive coordinator after another disaster on that side of the ball and it will be more aggressive. The easiest ACC schedule goes to North Carolina as only Florida St. and NC State are the two teams they play with higher win projections.

SMU Mustangs 11-3 ~ 8-0 AAC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 6-6-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7

SMU was at rock bottom after the death penalty from the late 80s but over the last wo decades, the Mustangs have moved from the WAC to the American to now their current home, the ACC. SMU went undefeated in the AAC at 8-0 last season, part of a 10-2 regular season with the two losses at Oklahoma and at TCU and then defeated Tulane 26-14in the AAC Championship Game. Its reward? An invite to the Fenway Bowl against Boston College where the Mustangs lost in a game they could have cared less about. That makes the move to the ACC that much sweeter and SMU will be a tough out from the start with most every important piece back. The offense was ranked No. 16 while the scoring offense was No. 8 led by quarterback Preston Stone, who finished with 28 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has his top seven receivers back as well as the top three running backs behind a veteran offensive line and this offense will be potent again. The defense was arguably better, ranking No. 12 overall and No. 11 in points allowed and 10 of the top 11 tacklers are back. Facing an ACC schedule may be a new, tough challenge so it may be something to monitor at first, especially with the first two ACC games against Florida St. and Louisville but eases up after that.

Syracuse Orange 6-7 ~ 2-6 ACC ~ 5-6-1 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 8

For the second straight season, Syracuse got off to a solid start, 6-0 in 2022 and 4-0 last year only to implode when the schedule toughened up. The Orange lost their next five games before going 1-1 but head coach Dino Babers was fired after the Georgia Tech loss. Nunzio Campanile took over as the interim coach and defeated Wake Forest to become bowl eligible for a second straight season but got hammered by South Florida 45-0. Syracuse hired Fran Brown who was the Georgia defensive backs coach for two seasons and considered one of the best recruiters in the country to right the ship of a program that has won more than six games only five times since 2002 with only one double-digit win season. The big name from the transfer portal is quarterback Kyle McCord coming in from Ohio St. off a very good season. He has the playmakers to work with so the offense should improve from its No. 88 ranking. The defense finished No. 65 overall and the Orange bring back their two leading tacklers in linebacker Marlowe Wax and defensive back Justin Barron so this unit can and should improve. The good news is that Syracuse has the fourth easiest projected schedule in the country of all 82 Power Four teams as it plays only two teams ranked inside the FPI Top 30, Miami and NC State.

Virginia Tech Hokies 7-6 ~ 5-3 ACC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 11/Defense 10

Virginia Tech is coming off its first winning season since 2019 so things could be looking up for head coach Brent Pry who enters his third season. The Hokies have just one double-digit win season in the last 12 years which came after they had eight consecutive double-digit victory campaigns under head coach Frank Beamer who left Blacksburg with 23 consecutive winning seasons. The Hokies have not come close to that success since his retirement and look to still be a middle of the conference team but there is hope for improvement. After finishing No. 61 in total offense and No. 57 in scoring offense, this should be an improved unit with plenty of experience. In a conference filled with incoming quarterback transfers, Virginia Tech has Kyron Drones returning for his second season as the starter and he has four of his top five receivers back that combined for 1,549 yards last season including Bhayshul Tuten out of the backfield who led the team in rushing with 999 yards as well. The defense improved by 55 ypg from 2022 and finished No. 20 in the country and brings back four of the top five tacklers. The Hokies should go 4-0 out of the gate in nonconference action and has a tame ACC schedule with the only big tests being at Miami and home against Clemson.

Cal Golden Bears 6-7 ~ 4-5 Pac 12 ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 7-5-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 7/Defense 8

Cal heads to the ACC from the Pac 12 where its days go all the way back to when the Pacific Coast Conference was founded in 1915. It is a tough geographical move for a Golden Bears team that did not have a winning conference season since 2009 when it was the Pac 10. However, with them moving to the ACC, it also makes numerous other teams having to travel out west so there is a give and take. Last season, Cal made it to its first bowl game since 2019 as it won its final three regular season games to become bowl eligible and while it lost to Texas Tech in the Independence Bowl, it was a season to build upon. The offense was nothing spectacular as it was No. 60 overall and No. 48 in scoring with 30.2 ppg, its highest average since 2016 and it was spurned when freshman quarterback Fernando Mendoza took over as the full time starter six games into the season. He returns along with running back Jaydn Ott who rushed for 1,370 yards and 13 touchdowns but transfers will have to fill the void at receiver. The defense was atrocious but led the country with 28 takeaways and they are a veteran group coming back. In the ACC, Cal has to travel to Florida St., Pittsburgh and Wake Forest but also has Miami, NC State and Syracuse coming out their way.

Duke Blue Devils 8-5 ~ 4-4 ACC ~ 6-6-0 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 5/Defense 5

It was supposed to be a special season for Duke with 18 returning starters including quarterback Riley Leonard and it started 4-0 before a controversial loss to Notre Dame and then Leonard got hurt and played only seven games. The Blue Devils finished 8-5 and went 17-9 under head coach Mike Elko who left for Texas A&M and Duke hired Manny Diaz who was fired in 2021 after three seasons in Miami but had a successful two years as the Penn St. defensive coordinator. Additionally, Leonard transferred to Notre Dame and is a top five Heisman Trophy candidate so that will be a big loss. Overall, 13 starters need to be replaced and taking over at quarterback will most likely be Maalik Murphy, a four-star recruit who transferred out of Texas and brings a huge upside to the position. He has the No. 1 and No. 3 receivers returning helping the transition but lost a lot along the offensive line. Defensively, Duke was solid at No. 17 in points allowed and Diaz will keep the unit strong despite key players gone. The schedule is both good and bad as the Blue Devils open the season with four very winnable nonconference games. In the ACC, they avoid Clemson and Louisville, they only leave the state once but they miss four of the five worst projected teams.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 7-6 ~ 5-3 ACC ~ 7-5-0 ATS ~ 9-3-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 5

After going 10-28 under head coach Geoff Collins, who was fired four games into the 2022 season, Georgia Tech has been a different team under new head coach Brent Key as it has gone 11-10, which is nothing spectacular, but the culture change is evident. The Yellow Jackets went to their first bowl game since 2018 and defeated Central Florida 30-17 in the Gasparilla Bowl to secure a winning season that included a 5-3 record in the conference with two of the losses coming against Clemson and Louisville. The offense was the strength as Georgia Tech finished No. 14 in total offense and No. 47 in scoring offense led by quarterback Haynes King who has huge upside as long as he considerably cuts down on his 16 interceptions. Additionally, 1,187-yard running back Jamal Haynes is back as well as the two leading receivers. Defensively is where the Yellow Jackets need major improvements as they finished second to last in the country in total defense with 473.5 ypg allowed. They have a lot of returning experience, whether that is good or bad, and they bring in a new defensive coordinator in Tyler Santucci. The real problem could be the schedule as it is ranked No. 10 in the country in terms of strength. They open in Dublin with Florida St. and overall face 10 bowl teams from last season.

Pittsburgh Panthers 3-9 ~ 2-6 ACC ~ 3-8-1 ATS ~ 8-4-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 4

It was a sudden fall for Pittsburgh in 2023 as following a 20-7 record the previous two seasons and finishing without a losing record since 2017, the Panthers bottomed out at 3-9, their fewest wins since 1998. The past success of head coach Pat Narduzzi secured his job but another season like that could put that job in jeopardy. The projected wins call for another tough season but if the offense can turn things around, the Panthers could surprise. The quarterback play was abysmal last season with three players seeing significant playing time and it was Nate Yarnell who arguably was the best of the three as he closed the season 1-1. He returns and will battle with Alabama transfer Eli Holstein for the starting spot on an offense that was No. 116 both overall and in scoring and will feature a new up-tempo system under new coordinator Kade Bell. The defense was certainly better than the offense but it was still an average unit that could not keep opposing offenses down enough to make up for the lack of scoring from its offense and it looks like a complete re-do with only three starters returning. The schedule features only five road games but four of those are very tough yet of the seven home games, six are more than winnable with the other being Clemson.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons 4-8 ~ 1-7 ACC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 4-6-2 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 7

Wake Forest is another team that took a hard and sudden fall in 2023. The Demon Deacons were 19-8 the previous two seasons which included an ACC Championship Game appearance and taking out the 2020 COVID year, they had six straight winning seasons but tumbled to 4-8 and finished last in the ACC at 1-7 with the only win coming against Pittsburgh by four points. A major factor, like Pittsburgh, the quarterback play was horrible split between three players so the loss of Sam Hartman to Notre Dame was clearly apparent. The Panthers should get a boost with Louisiana Tech and Boise St. transfer Hank Bachmeier coming in but they need to replace four of the top five wide receivers. Leading rusher Demond Claiborne is back to ease some of the transition to go along with an experienced offensive line. Wake Forest was slightly below average on defense and consistent as it ranked between No. 74 and No. 78 in total defense, scoring defense, passing defense and rushing defense. They have seven starters back but come in ranked in the conference No. 12 up front and dead last in the secondary. Wake Forest does not leave home until October which is good early on before five of the next seven on the road with one of the home games against Clemson.

Boston College Eagles 7-6 ~ 3-5 ACC ~ 4-8-0 ATS ~ 9-3-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 9/Defense 8

Boston College was one of the pleasant surprises in the ACC as it ended up 7-6 which included a 23-14 bowl win over SMU in the Fenway Bowl. The Eagles have finished with at least six wins in nine of the last 11 seasons but the problem is that they have never surpassed seven victories. Last season, Boston College was the only team in the ACC with a winning record that had a negative point differential so 2023 could have been a little bit of fool's gold. Head coach Jeff Hafley left to become the defensive coordinator of the Green Bay Packers and the Eagles brought in hometown native Bill O'Brien who has plenty of coaching experience at every level. Boston College was below average on both sides of the ball but it brings back 17 starters and is the fourth most experienced team in the ACC. The offense is led by quarterback Thomas Castellanos who threw for 2,270 yards and 15 touchdowns and ran for 1,113 yards but he tossed 14 interceptions so that has to be cut down. Defensively, the Eagles come in ranked between No. 13 and No. 16 on the three levels so the offense may have to carry them early on. They open at Florida St. and face eight bowl teams from last season while going against three teams coming directly off a bye so this is not any easy slate.

Virginia Cavaliers 3-9 ~ 2-6 ACC ~ 8-4-0 ATS ~ 9-2-1 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 8/Defense 8

Virginia is coming off its second straight three-win season although the 2022 season was cut short with two games getting cancelled because of the tragic shooting on campus. The Cavaliers were picked to finish last in the ACC in 2023 and they were close, finishing only one game from the bottom. They opened the season 0-5 before getting their first win against William & Mary of the FCS and then somehow upset No. 10 North Carolina on the road as a 23.5-point underdog and another near upset at Miami the following game took any wind out of their sails. The offense was ok at times but could not muster enough scoring to make up for the porous defense that finished No. 119 in points allowed and No. 104 overall. Eight starters are back which for a previously bad defense can be just as bad as it can be good with the balance between poor play and experience masking each other. They also have eight starters back on offense including the entire offensive line that will protect the quarterback where there is a battle between Tony Muskett and Anthony Colandrea as well as their top three rushers. The Cavaliers can go anywhere from 5-0 to 1-4 in the first five games and then it gets extremely tough down the stretch in the last seven games facing six bowl teams from last year.

Stanford Cardinal ~ 3-9 ~ 2-7 Pac 12 ~ 5-7-0 ATS ~ 5-7-0 O/U

Returning Starters ~ Offense 10/Defense 8

Stanford is the third of the new teams entering the ACC and is in the toughest spot. The Cardinal will likely be the consensus to finish last in the conference coming off its third straight 3-9 season and have the fifth toughest schedule in the country. It was not that long ago that Stanford was competing for Pac 12 Championships but it has gone downhill quickly and there will not be much room for error this season. The Cardinal bring back 18 starters, which again, can be good or bad and in this case it looks like the latter as in the ACC the only position units ranked in the top 10 are receivers and linebacker, both at No. 8. Quarterback Ashton Daniels showed some positive signs but he needs to be more consistent and accurate after completing just 59 percent of his passes and he has his top three receivers back as well as his offensive line now they need to find a running back. Stanford was one of the worst teams defensively, ranking No. 131 overall and No. 132 in points allowed and the future looks bleak. Like Cal, the Cardinal travel east three times in the conference and have three teams coming to Stanford. Over their final 10 games, they face five teams that will be coming off a bye which is the most of any team in the conference.

 Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction 8-16-24

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Matt Fargo Sports Free Pick Milwaukee Brewers -103

  MLB   08/16   8:10 PM   Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers

  PICK: Milwaukee Brewers -103

s is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our Friday Free Play. Milwaukee dropped the first two games against the Dodgers but were able to recover and grab the final two games to secure a big split to maintain its nine-game lead over the Reds and Cardinals in the National League Central. The Brewers host another tough opponent at home where they are now 35-24 and in a good spot with a really good number as they continue to be undervalued. Cleveland has won five straight games to increase its lead in the American League Central to four games over Minnesota and six games over Kansas City as things were getting dicey following a seven-game losing streak. The Guardians once again have the best record in baseball thanks to the best home record and they continue to dominate left-handed pitching as they are 26-9 against southpaw starters. Cleveland is just six games over .500 against right-handed starters. Gavin Williams is coming off a solid start against the Twins on the road to lower his road ERA to 0.84 and that was clearly his best of his four road outings only because of who he has faced as we went against the Tigers twice and the Rays, two of the worst hitting teams at home. The Brewers have been middle of the pack against left-handed pitching this season but they are second in the National League .256 average against right-handed pitching while their .745 OPS is No. 4. Overall, they are 54-33 against right-handed starters and that .621 percentage is second best in baseball only behind the Yankees. Aaron Civale has made six starts since coming over from Tampa Bay and he has some early big splits. In three road games, he has an 8.77 ERA while in his three home outings, he has a 2.50 ERA and while not as extreme, he was better at home in Tampa Bay as well as his overall 6.62 ERA on the road has ballooned his overall numbers. Play (976) Milwaukee Brewers

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 Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves MLB Prediction 8-4-24

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Last 5 Picks Posted All WINNERS! 

Matt Fargo Sports Free Pick Atlanta Braves -1.5 

  MLB   08/04   1:35 PM   Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves

  PICK: Atlanta Braves -1.5

s is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES RUNLINE for our Sunday Free Play. Our auto play against Miami is back in play again on Sunday and not laying the big number but going with the runline. Miami got a win last night 4-3 but the offense is still struggling as the Marlins are second to last in baseball with a .286 wOBA and .127 ISO. Going back to May 19, Miami has scored three runs or less in 35 of 59 games and this includes getting shut out eight times over this span. The Marlins facing a left-handed starter has been bad news as they are 7-30 while averaging 2.8 rpg with a .227 average, second worst in the league and a .620 OPS, dead last in baseball and of those 30 losses, 25 have been by two or more runs and by an average of 4.3 rpg. The Braves had a four-game winning streak snapped with the loss and they have made up ground in the National League East as they are five games behind the Phillies. Atlanta is 10 games over .500 at home and even though the offense has been dealing with a plethora of injuries, they are No. 6 in ISO at.207 over the last month. Edward Cabrera is making his eleventh start of the season and just his six since May. He has made it through five innings only four times and he had to leave his last outing with a knee issue and while he did not get skipped, his health is a concern. Overall, he has a 6.65 ERA and while his xERA comes down to 4.96, it is still not very good. He has a 3.07 BABIP which is No. 226 out of 304 starters that have gone at least 40 innings. Max Fried has been activated off the IL and the Braves really need him for the stretch run. He has allowed more than three runs in just four of his 18 starts and those were against the Phillies, Orioles, Dodgers and Diamondbacks with all four of those teams ranked in the top seven in OPS and certainly has a great matchup here. Play (954) Atlanta Braves -1.5 Runs

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